Ten Things to be Learned from JAPAN

Ten Things to be Learned from JAPAN:

1. THE CALM
Not a single visual of wild shouting displays of grief. Sorrow itself
has been elevated to a new level.

За Гражданството на Демоса и Демокрацията

Ако историята е някакъв показател, скандалите около „туристическия вот” в избори 2009 ще отшумят точно както отшумяха през 2005, както и през 2001 преди това. Ако историята наистина е някакъв показател, проблемът с „туристическия вот” ще се появи отново през следващите избори, независимо кога са те. Манипулирането и фалшифицирането на избори съпътстват трудния демократичен преход на България от 1989 година насам и пречат на консолидацията на демократичните институции в страната. Но човек трябва да прави разлика между „манипулиране” и „фалшифициране”. Първото е част от демократичния процес (независимо, че това нарушава идеалистичната чистота на идеята за демокрация). За това имаме и парадокс – ограничаването на „манипулацията” на демократичния вот (която руши демокрацията) е „недемократично”. Във втория случай няма парадокс – фалшифицирането на избори е недемократично. Въпросът е дали двойното гражданство и съответно правото да се гласува в две държави е фалшификация или манипулация на вота.

Всъщност, това съвсем не е тривиален въпрос. Парадоксът с манипулацията на вота може по своята логи

Why North Korea's Nuclear Bullishness Is Good News for US Foreign Policy

North Korea tested a nuclear device this past Memorial Day weekend in attempt to call the US bluff. The Great Powers rushed to condemn the test, which was expected, and the UN's Security Council is expected to deliver a strong resolution against N. Korea. South Korea, frightened and frustrated, agreed to back the US plan to search N. Korea's boats for weapons. Pyongyang has warned that such a move would be considered an open declaration of war. Now South Korea must call the North's bluff.  But the real victims of the Dear Leader's power game will be Russia and China, along with his tacit supporters. Conversely, he US actually stands to benefit from this escalation. Here is why.

Before looking at the implications of this new situation, and the possible ways to respond, we must address: a) why the escalation happened and b) why it happened now. There are at least two possible scenarios as to why Pyongyang tested the nuclear devices, and launched the missiles. The first one is linked to domestic bickering for power. It is no secret that Kim Jon Il's health is ailing, and some conspiracy reports even suggest that he has died, but this is kept secret from ordinary citizens and the rest of the world. In either case, it is safe to guess that there is an ongoing struggle for power between different branches of the totalitarian regime. It is

New York Terrorist Plot a Test for Domestic Counterterrorism Strategy

The recently released by FBI information about the arrests of four suspects who allegedly planned to blow up a few synagogues in NYC and shoot down military planes with a ground-to-air Stinger missile system will now become, perhaps, the greatest test for the argument that counterterrorism could be conducted successfully via the traditional court systems, without extrajudicial methods, such as Guantanamo or similar renditions.

[caption id="attachment_148" align="aligncenter" width="249" caption="The targets of the alleged terrorists, courtesy of BBC"][/caption]

To examine this I look into the particulars of each approach.

The Nuclear Ticking Scenario in Pakistan: Deal or No Deal?

Watching Pakistan dealing with the growing menace of extremists inside the country for the past decade or so reminds of the popular game "Deal or No Deal." After every round of political soup opera the stakes are raised, and the Western allies, primarily the US is asked "deal or no deal?" Then the game goes on into a new round. This comparison would have been entertaining had it not been so demonically tragic for the ordinary Pakistani clamped down between corrupt government(s), unpredictable military institution, and blinded religious fanatics-idealists. The latest round is particularly 'entertaining' because of what seems to be at stake – Pakistan's nuclear arsenal. So now we have ever more emboldened, ever more galvanized, and ever more determined Pakistani Taliban movement, a shaky, unpopular, and divided government, a finalist in the form of the US, and a military 'banker.' Do we have a deal?

Before going along with this crude comparison, we must decide how viable this image of a ticking nuclear nightmare is. First, let us look briefly into the main actors:

Политическата Лакомия на БСП/ДПС с Двойно Острие?

Желанието на БСП и ДПС на всяка цена да попречат на крехата коалиция на десницата да осигурят на ГЕРБ очаквана подкрепа за бъдещ кабинет не бива да изненадва никого. Политическите партии, както редица изследователи отдавна са установили (виж например Дж. Сартори), се опитват да постигнат определени основни цели, сред които оцеляване, увеличаване на електоралната си база и взимане на власт с цел прилагане на политическа линия и налагане на определена политика. Нека няма съмнение, желанието да се стигне до властта и да се задържи тя колкото се може по-дълго е напълно рационално желание и няма нищо

Third Time is NOT a Charm: Why Obama’s Af-Pak Plan Could Fail its Mission

Obama's Administration finally came up with a plan for Afghanistan and Pakistan, in the form of speech by the President, and in the form of a white paper. Surprisingly, the two do not overlap, as some commentators have rightly pointed. This mismatch can be attributed to the ambivalent position of the President to the issue. As New York Times informed over the weekend, the President's announcement came after a significant disagreement between the Vice-President Biden and Secretary of State Clinton on the scope and goals of US involvement in the region. The president promised 4,000 additional troops to be deployed on the ground as trainers, and in his speech focused exclusively on al Qaeda, as the main goal for the operation. There was no mentioning of nation-building, regional stability, or reform. This was, in effect, the Vice President's minimalist approach, tacitly approved by the Defense Secretary Gates, and perhaps the first defeat in what appears to be a repetition of triangular power-struggle for influence over the President by the Office of the Vice President, the State Department, and the Department of Defense.

US abandoned nation-building processes in Afghanistan twice in the past twenty years. The result was first the coming of the Taliban, then the establishment of al Qaeda there and subsequently 9/11, and now the failure of Pakistan and the creeping Talibanization of its North-West Frontier Provices and FATA. So, the real question is what this strategy will do to stabilize the region, if at all, and how. The starting point for this analysis must be an assessment of the preceding and current conditions on the ground in Afghanistan and